Published on
January 12, 2024
This guest contribution was originally published in German on LinkedIn by Thomas Böhme.
Over a year ago, the Metaverse hype was suddenly replaced by the AI hype and as quickly as it was pushed upwards, the media wrote just as quickly about the supposed death of the Metaverse. A vivid example of technological hype that sweeps the world from time to time. This phenomenon is not due to the actual potential, but rather to the sensationalism that often accompanies the creation of new technologies.
What was noticeable this time was that even reputable consultants like McKinsey & Company or Accenture predicted a trillion-dollar market in a very short space of time. Some tech companies that started right during this hype period have already had to give up again; Meta's Reality Labs Division has made a loss of almost $40 billion since it was launched at the end of 2020. Companies like Microsoft and Unity have laid off large parts of their workforce in this area.
Having reached the trough of disillusionment also has tangible advantages - the industry must focus on the topics that offer users significant advantages over previous solutions. Virtual meetings in a Lego world with a self-designed avatar are fun for the first time, but the second time around it wears off and when I end up having an embedded Zoom meeting in a 3D world or a miro via an iframe Board is called, the advantage is obsolete.
Whether you continue to call it Metaverse or, as before, Virtual/Augmented/Extended Reality is an open question. What is relevant is that Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) have made tremendous progress, moving from the world of science fiction to reality. In 2024, we can expect these technologies to grow more slowly than forecast but continue to gain in importance. Here are some of the most promising trends of VR and AR in 2024 and beyond.
VR has made great progress here in recent years. VR training courses are ideal for simulating processes that in reality would either not be possible at all or would only be possible to implement with great effort. More and more companies are not training their workforce or those of their customers on real machines, but initially in virtual environments. Soft skills can also be represented very well with VR training. As early as 2018, Walmart had large parts of its workforce trained using VR in order to be optimally prepared for business on Black Friday. Until now, these virtual training courses were difficult to implement by developers. Thanks to low-code/no-code solutions for visual authoring such as MindPort, such training courses can also be created by business users and developers can then combine them with their applications.
2024 could be the breakthrough year for virtual commerce. Marketplaces such as Alibaba and Amazon have been experimenting with 3D content for a long time in order to vividly display products for customers and thus improve the customer experience, increase conversion rates and minimize returns. E-commerce players like Shopware are expanding their solutions to include spatial commerce and examples of graceful virtual stores like Macy's, designed by Journee, will inspire more brands to present their products in an attractive way.
Virtual fitting solutions are becoming more and more sophisticated for trying out products online and stationary retailers can also benefit from such solutions to present collections in all colors and variants in the store.
Sales of Apple Vision Pro are eagerly awaited, with sales starting in the USA on February 2nd. Meta has already done a good job with Quest 3 and has significantly increased the graphics and options. Gesture and voice controls will help improve the user experience and break down barriers. It will be interesting to see how manufacturers like Pico or HTC react. According to rumors, Pico has stopped developing the Pico 5 and is now developing a new device based on Apple's Vision Pro. Analysts expect sales of up to 74 million VR glasses for 2024.
In my opinion, a certain disillusionment has occurred here. With Horizon, Meta is now focusing on younger target groups with an expectedly higher affinity. Acceptance on the customer side remains to be seen. Reports of sexual assault do not necessarily contribute to acceptance among parents. It also remains to be seen how Epic Games will put its vision for the Metaverse into action. The unveiling of the long-awaited Unreal Editor for Fortnite, plans to monetize user-generated content and a unified marketplace show the concrete direction.
There has also been a bit of calm in the entertainment area. No question, there are wonderful artistic projects using virtual and augmented reality and it is certainly not just Hollywood's dream to allow the viewer to participate directly in the film as a passive spectator, but there is still a long way to go. However, as long as there is no interoperability, users will be widely distributed in various worlds (Horizon, Roblox, Sandbox, etc.).
In healthcare, VR and AR can make a greater contribution to developing new diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. On the one hand, this applies to the virtual training of operations and the testing of new treatment methods but also to the treatment of psychological disorders, such as anxiety and panic disorders, but also to gentle treatment methods such as meditation or mindfulness exercises.
Essential to the success of a new technology is interoperability, i.e. the ability to connect different virtual environments in a coordinated and seamless manner. Apart from announcements there is little to see at the moment. The big tech giants are eager to position their own platform as the essential one. But they should, let's imagine how the spread of electric cars would progress if every manufacturer had its own charging system. On the other hand, I see progress in supporting tools for automating processes and reducing polygons in order to better manage large amounts of data and thus reduce barriers to use. An interesting solution here, for example, is SolidMeta.
Overall, the year 2024 promises interesting developments in the area of virtual and augmented reality. With a wider range of applications and increasingly sophisticated technologies, VR and AR will transform the way we learn, work, communicate and entertain ourselves. It will be exciting to see how these technologies develop further in 2024.